🔗 Share this article

A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.

That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate

The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.

Absence of Serious Debate

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.

"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. They composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end lose but each side has has something to learn from the opposing positions."

Call for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster must engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."